2663 pts ยท July 25, 2013
When the economy collapses its the billionaires and trillionaires that still have anything left and spend the time snapping up as much as they can while everything is dirt cheap. And you know when half the country is starving and losing their homes, but when have they ever cared about that? Long story short those people will wind up more wealthy over time from a crash, it won't shake things up for a better world or anything. Unless the starving peasants get mad, anyways.
Yeah, this thread reminds me of a while back when I kept seeing in the news that ai was going to take over surgeons jobs and the whole concept was just moronic. We automated flying planes, and yet you'll notice we still have pilots in the chairs running the autopilot and on standby for when it fails. It's not that most jobs have been automated, it's that we have an incredible number of useless jobs that exist for reasons other than completing the tasks at hand.
I hope you told them it was because exposing your junk to them is illegal. Also it ruins the exposure.
3/2) Think about how casinos are perfectly happy to let that one big winner walk away with a shit ton of money because for every one of those there are hundreds of people the casino bleeds dry along the way. In fact, the casinos like that the winners exist. They highlight them, make loud noises, play flashy lights. The people that walk away from the trap with some bait are just further bait for the trap.
2/2) those places have already done to maintain that hook. The win rate is hidden from the player, in the case of the manual I linked, by a series a switches that are inside the machine inaccessible to the player. The manual does not tell you how those odds are generated so a user can't even game an algorithm without having to reverse engineer it for that particular machine. And the owner does not care if one particular person is greatly enriched so long as enough people play.
1/2)I think it's also important to remember when discussing how they might have implemented machines that these boxes are a scam targeted at children by misrepresenting pure gambling as a game of skill. The odds are likely calculated in a similar way to real world casinos where it's more about finding the best way to psychologically hook the user. And they are not subject to gambling laws that require casinos and phone gachas to display their odds because of explicit fuckery with the odds that
And independently rolled probabilities have their own issues. For instance, they are much more prone to streaks of good luck, that could damage the owner financially by having them pay out more than expected, or bad luck that could drive down interaction because nobody is being witnessed winning.
I'm arguing that your argument that it explicitly works a different way is unfounded. I did this by pointing out several alternatives, including a real world example where people adjust gambling win rates on the fly based on previous outcomes. You are the one who is insisting that it explicitly works in one singular way without any support other than the way you feel.
Correct. My argument supports my initial statement: namely that it is not necessarily guaranteed that the odds are independent. My evidence of the manual does not prove either possibility false which is the point I was trying to make. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and I imagine your ability to game the system by playing after failed wins will vary from system to system based upon how each developer chose to make the "game."
The manuals are very open about being able to set the win rate, but at least for the one I linked in one of my self replies, it's ambiguous about how it goes about determining which 1 in X rounds is the winning round.
Right, but the execution of the odds is not necessarily independent of previous attempts. It could be a simple counter where the game enters a winnable state every 10 plays. It could do the phone gacha thing were it changes the odds if it's been a while without a win to entice people to still play. It could be a fully independent probability that just rolls the user set win rate each play. It all comes down to how the machine was coded to execute the win rate.
And to give an idea of how prevalent this stuff is with crane games, I didn't go hunting for that specific manual. I just googled "Crane game manual" and clicked the first link.
Absolutely. Page 55 describes the exact mechanics of how it rigs successful and failed plays and Page 58 even goes into how to set a desired win rate of 1 in X. The manuals for these things are INCREDIBLY open about the machine being rigged if you look at them. Now the manual does not state whether that is rolled each attempt or if it uses previous play attempts in the calculation, so the question of if you can counter rig that model by playing machines that haven't paid out is still in the air.
For an example look at how phone gacha games work: The chance of you getting a rare, shiny anime girl in a skimpy outfit jpg (as they all devolve into, like how cassettes in cars naturally devolve into best of Queen albums) increases each time you fail to roll one and then resets once a "winning" draw is achieved. And we know claw machines can track successes because a simple search turned up this manual (pg 35) https://www.betson.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Crane-Manual-201703.pdf
You're assuming the odds are independent. If the claw machine tracks how often an object makes it to the prize chute, it can absolutely have the previous attempts factor into the odds of the current attempt. Regardless, the things are a scam and you shouldn't give any of your money to machines that openly have the ability to set a win rate in the manual.
The thing that gets me is that its ALWAYS autism. ADHD? Schizophrenia? Bipolar? Depression? Nah, gonna go with autism again. There is a whole breadth of other psych issues they disdain they could target, but they always come back to roost in the same spot. It's like with other conspiracy theories always boiling back to the Jews. Why? What is wrong with these people? They just keep hyper fixating on the same things over and over again.
People always treat nihilism like some terrible depressing thing and a problem. If nothing matters, then logically the fact that nothing matters... also does not matter. You don't need to feel like you have a purpose to enjoy the life you have while you have it.
The sperm whale is highly offended that you would describe the flavor profile of such a delicacy as merely "okay." It will be a culinary sensation.
... enough
To be fair to their confusion, the man was killed for being not racist...
So what you're saying is that she had 2-3 times more than what it took you a lifetime to accrue? 1-2 lifetimes worth of cash is a lot of money to just discount out of hand.
The worst is like with my sister when they already have three of the dang things. Just leave the woman alone! My beautiful, perfect spawn is plenty and my brother even gave you two bonus ones.
I don't know if I'm more impressed with the athleticism, the fact that he had the money and time to set up that rig where he can literally hang custom courses like this at will(Look at all those unused eye sockets! this kid probably has a whole stash of toys to hang up there), or concerned that the kid will be feeling this shit in another 30 years that is entirely founded on gut feel and not facts.
From my work in ems I can tell you that this would have been a blessing for the man. People in their 20s that call 911 don't actually need the ambulance 99.9% of the time and this could just had saved the dude a bill/cost him some time. The correct course of action is to maliciously document exactly how bullshit the call was in a way that the insurance company will slam that deny button on the racists bill so hard that it breaks. Turn evil against evil.
I just bought a house. You could buy my house, spend another 100k stuffing it to the gills with all kinds of goofy stuff, and put a pair of brand new cars in the garage ONE HUNDRED times on his "to be able to buy a house and things like that." and that's before it was doubled. And not including things like selling his old home/cars. This is absolutely more rich guy PR about what a nice and modest person they are.
I just bought a house. You could buy my house, spend another 100k stuffing it to the gills with all kinds of goofy stuff, and put a pair of brand new cars in the garage ONE HUNDRED times on his "to be able to buy a house and things like that." and that's before it was doubled. And not including things like selling his old home/cars. Don't fall for yet another rich guy telling a sappy story about how modest they are.
And yes, this should have been a warning or a minor ticket instead of an arrest. The cop escalated it into an arrest because this dude was a little disrespectful and didn't know the procedure (and possibly because black). That's why the city quickly glossed over the initial stop by just stating he exceeded a speed limit of 45 without going into detail.
They stated he exceeded a speed limit of 45 and did not say by how much. And then later when he prompted him for the speed, they gave just the speed. He either forgot/missed they had mentioned the speed limit earlier or was trying to get them to flat out say how much he was speeding. Because that was the ENTIRE basis for the stop in the first place. The point of the hearing is to determine if police had probable cause for the arrest and that starts with the traffic stop that initiated it.
The road he mentioned was a freeway with a speed limit of 60. He was trying to get them to say the speed limit of the road and the speed he was clocked at in the same sentence. I believe they had mentioned the speed limit earlier, but he looked annoyed at having to drag the speed difference out of them after they neglected to even mention his speed at first.
In general I think most men and women have the exact same reaction: "Well this sucks, but I need this paycheck so call me typhoid Mary."
When the economy collapses its the billionaires and trillionaires that still have anything left and spend the time snapping up as much as they can while everything is dirt cheap. And you know when half the country is starving and losing their homes, but when have they ever cared about that? Long story short those people will wind up more wealthy over time from a crash, it won't shake things up for a better world or anything. Unless the starving peasants get mad, anyways.
Yeah, this thread reminds me of a while back when I kept seeing in the news that ai was going to take over surgeons jobs and the whole concept was just moronic. We automated flying planes, and yet you'll notice we still have pilots in the chairs running the autopilot and on standby for when it fails. It's not that most jobs have been automated, it's that we have an incredible number of useless jobs that exist for reasons other than completing the tasks at hand.
I hope you told them it was because exposing your junk to them is illegal. Also it ruins the exposure.
3/2) Think about how casinos are perfectly happy to let that one big winner walk away with a shit ton of money because for every one of those there are hundreds of people the casino bleeds dry along the way. In fact, the casinos like that the winners exist. They highlight them, make loud noises, play flashy lights. The people that walk away from the trap with some bait are just further bait for the trap.
2/2) those places have already done to maintain that hook. The win rate is hidden from the player, in the case of the manual I linked, by a series a switches that are inside the machine inaccessible to the player. The manual does not tell you how those odds are generated so a user can't even game an algorithm without having to reverse engineer it for that particular machine. And the owner does not care if one particular person is greatly enriched so long as enough people play.
1/2)I think it's also important to remember when discussing how they might have implemented machines that these boxes are a scam targeted at children by misrepresenting pure gambling as a game of skill. The odds are likely calculated in a similar way to real world casinos where it's more about finding the best way to psychologically hook the user. And they are not subject to gambling laws that require casinos and phone gachas to display their odds because of explicit fuckery with the odds that
And independently rolled probabilities have their own issues. For instance, they are much more prone to streaks of good luck, that could damage the owner financially by having them pay out more than expected, or bad luck that could drive down interaction because nobody is being witnessed winning.
I'm arguing that your argument that it explicitly works a different way is unfounded. I did this by pointing out several alternatives, including a real world example where people adjust gambling win rates on the fly based on previous outcomes. You are the one who is insisting that it explicitly works in one singular way without any support other than the way you feel.
Correct. My argument supports my initial statement: namely that it is not necessarily guaranteed that the odds are independent. My evidence of the manual does not prove either possibility false which is the point I was trying to make. There is more than one way to skin a cat, and I imagine your ability to game the system by playing after failed wins will vary from system to system based upon how each developer chose to make the "game."
The manuals are very open about being able to set the win rate, but at least for the one I linked in one of my self replies, it's ambiguous about how it goes about determining which 1 in X rounds is the winning round.
Right, but the execution of the odds is not necessarily independent of previous attempts. It could be a simple counter where the game enters a winnable state every 10 plays. It could do the phone gacha thing were it changes the odds if it's been a while without a win to entice people to still play. It could be a fully independent probability that just rolls the user set win rate each play. It all comes down to how the machine was coded to execute the win rate.
And to give an idea of how prevalent this stuff is with crane games, I didn't go hunting for that specific manual. I just googled "Crane game manual" and clicked the first link.
Absolutely. Page 55 describes the exact mechanics of how it rigs successful and failed plays and Page 58 even goes into how to set a desired win rate of 1 in X. The manuals for these things are INCREDIBLY open about the machine being rigged if you look at them. Now the manual does not state whether that is rolled each attempt or if it uses previous play attempts in the calculation, so the question of if you can counter rig that model by playing machines that haven't paid out is still in the air.
For an example look at how phone gacha games work: The chance of you getting a rare, shiny anime girl in a skimpy outfit jpg (as they all devolve into, like how cassettes in cars naturally devolve into best of Queen albums) increases each time you fail to roll one and then resets once a "winning" draw is achieved. And we know claw machines can track successes because a simple search turned up this manual (pg 35) https://www.betson.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Crane-Manual-201703.pdf
You're assuming the odds are independent. If the claw machine tracks how often an object makes it to the prize chute, it can absolutely have the previous attempts factor into the odds of the current attempt. Regardless, the things are a scam and you shouldn't give any of your money to machines that openly have the ability to set a win rate in the manual.
The thing that gets me is that its ALWAYS autism. ADHD? Schizophrenia? Bipolar? Depression? Nah, gonna go with autism again. There is a whole breadth of other psych issues they disdain they could target, but they always come back to roost in the same spot. It's like with other conspiracy theories always boiling back to the Jews. Why? What is wrong with these people? They just keep hyper fixating on the same things over and over again.
People always treat nihilism like some terrible depressing thing and a problem. If nothing matters, then logically the fact that nothing matters... also does not matter. You don't need to feel like you have a purpose to enjoy the life you have while you have it.
The sperm whale is highly offended that you would describe the flavor profile of such a delicacy as merely "okay." It will be a culinary sensation.
... enough
To be fair to their confusion, the man was killed for being not racist...
So what you're saying is that she had 2-3 times more than what it took you a lifetime to accrue? 1-2 lifetimes worth of cash is a lot of money to just discount out of hand.
The worst is like with my sister when they already have three of the dang things. Just leave the woman alone! My beautiful, perfect spawn is plenty and my brother even gave you two bonus ones.
I don't know if I'm more impressed with the athleticism, the fact that he had the money and time to set up that rig where he can literally hang custom courses like this at will(Look at all those unused eye sockets! this kid probably has a whole stash of toys to hang up there), or concerned that the kid will be feeling this shit in another 30 years that is entirely founded on gut feel and not facts.
From my work in ems I can tell you that this would have been a blessing for the man. People in their 20s that call 911 don't actually need the ambulance 99.9% of the time and this could just had saved the dude a bill/cost him some time. The correct course of action is to maliciously document exactly how bullshit the call was in a way that the insurance company will slam that deny button on the racists bill so hard that it breaks. Turn evil against evil.
I just bought a house. You could buy my house, spend another 100k stuffing it to the gills with all kinds of goofy stuff, and put a pair of brand new cars in the garage ONE HUNDRED times on his "to be able to buy a house and things like that." and that's before it was doubled. And not including things like selling his old home/cars. This is absolutely more rich guy PR about what a nice and modest person they are.
I just bought a house. You could buy my house, spend another 100k stuffing it to the gills with all kinds of goofy stuff, and put a pair of brand new cars in the garage ONE HUNDRED times on his "to be able to buy a house and things like that." and that's before it was doubled. And not including things like selling his old home/cars. Don't fall for yet another rich guy telling a sappy story about how modest they are.
And yes, this should have been a warning or a minor ticket instead of an arrest. The cop escalated it into an arrest because this dude was a little disrespectful and didn't know the procedure (and possibly because black). That's why the city quickly glossed over the initial stop by just stating he exceeded a speed limit of 45 without going into detail.
They stated he exceeded a speed limit of 45 and did not say by how much. And then later when he prompted him for the speed, they gave just the speed. He either forgot/missed they had mentioned the speed limit earlier or was trying to get them to flat out say how much he was speeding. Because that was the ENTIRE basis for the stop in the first place. The point of the hearing is to determine if police had probable cause for the arrest and that starts with the traffic stop that initiated it.
The road he mentioned was a freeway with a speed limit of 60. He was trying to get them to say the speed limit of the road and the speed he was clocked at in the same sentence. I believe they had mentioned the speed limit earlier, but he looked annoyed at having to drag the speed difference out of them after they neglected to even mention his speed at first.
In general I think most men and women have the exact same reaction: "Well this sucks, but I need this paycheck so call me typhoid Mary."