BellsTheorem
8959
383
29
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/harris-erases-trumps-lead-wsj-poll-finds-e286144d
Edit: Wow. I think this is my first FP moment.
Jul 28, 2024 8:13 PM
BellsTheorem
8959
383
29
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/harris-erases-trumps-lead-wsj-poll-finds-e286144d
Edit: Wow. I think this is my first FP moment.
MenloPart
trippingthelightfantastic
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PutItInNeutral
So you're citing an election map from the 1960's as proof?
circlebreaker
They deleted their comment, what did they say that was so embarrassing?
smegheadenergy
The mods won’t approve of this since the Nazis who generate ad revenue here will be angered
JustSomePersonThere
Correct.
Freak0zoid
Well, after this shit show they are slightly more afraid of the users
BellsTheorem
I'm not sure what you mean. It's still up. All of my anti-trump anti-nazi posts are still up.
r0b0tc0rpse
Are you new here? IMGUR is super far left
getadogupya
Sounds like a bot. Every other post is bitching about mods, in un-english.
r0b0tc0rpse
Lots of bots on imgur in the last ~8 years or so.
yeahhedugit
Wait, you have to posts with over 600 upvotes each. No FP for that?
BellsTheorem
I saw this one on the FP for a short time. Not sure about the other one.
[deleted]
[deleted]
yeahhedugit
I use voice to text too much and it always screws up. Look at that. I was trying to illustrate how it always screws up and it worked perfectly. Go figure.
BellsTheorem
The AI is fucking with you.
yeahhedugit
Like JDs couch.
ItsACrazyWorld
I have to say this every single time. Polls dont mean shit. They are very inaccurate.
squelcheswetly
I’m actively avoiding responding to any of them.
Ninjainslippers
It's not so much that they're inaccurate (they are) but the election will be decided by 100-200k dipshit voters in 5 states who decide randomly whether to vote and for whom at the last minute with no political information. So national polling means literally nothing. Give me a random poll of the dumbest people in MI, AZ, WI, GA, and PA and you'll get a closer idea of the election outcome.
williamtowel
Most serious pollsters have been calling out that poll are completely inaccurate for years now though. They can't get anyone to take a poll. The only ones they can are land lines and have the time. Old people which have a major political skew. While most internet polls get swamped by trolls and bots and none have been anywhere near accurate.
khora
A scary large number of people decide how they are going to vote on the day they vote.
BellsTheorem
Polls do mean shit, just not the shit people think they mean. Polls are great indicators of trends just not actual numbers. It's how polls change over time that tell you the direction the electorate is moving.
denimdenis
That’s good then I hope. Coupled with the fact it seems most polls were always skewing republican in recent races but to everyone’s “surprise” Democrats then won those races or overperformed (eg red trickle, abortion right measures in Ohio, special elections in New York etc)
So Harris closing gap and now being tied within error margin in most if not all swing states, praying it all works out as recent history would predict
BellsTheorem
Yes. I think in the current environment polls under report the young voters. Which I think is a blessing since it forces the Democrats to overcompensate and Republicans to become over confident. But momentum is clearly in Harris' favor. This is the fist time I've been really hopeful in over a year.
Tumescentpie
To pile on. Think about the last time you answered a poll survey. Think about what kind of people answer random calls and polls.
BellsTheorem
It still tells you the direction the electorate is moving in. There is valuable information in polls. You just can't rely on it to predict the outcome. At the most basic level it's a sensor for change and direction.
Tumescentpie
There might be valuable data there, but not for the general public. When shown to the general public it is just used to promote things like voter apathy and dog piling.
Just like upvotes and downvotes on sites like these.
The number of studies that show people will follow the herd are deafening.
BellsTheorem
Not for people who don't understand the proper framing for such data. Which is most people.
pgdave
They're pretty accurate, not sure what you're talking about. Like, they're pretty much always within the margin of error, +/- about 5 percentage points.
Hammertulski
They may be accurate to the data set, but don’t for one second think that data set is representative of the entire nation because it is provably not.
BellsTheorem
It isn't. We know to some degree which demographics are left out and how that population generally votes. So it's still a useful tool for a campaign. Just don't rely on it to predict the outcome of the election.
Hammertulski
I believe it’s useful data to a campaign in order to update localized targeting, it’s useful to media in order to influence markets, and useless to the general public in terms of understanding what’s to come. Too often, I hear this “but the polls in x example were right!” without a shred of consideration that it’s the equivalent of using the farmer’s almanac to predict exact weather six months in advance, if applied to a nationwide election.
ItsACrazyWorld
really? then why did every poll say hillary was going to beat trump by a huge margin?
pgdave
They didn't? The polls showed that a ton of races in different states were close, and he won within the margins.
BellsTheorem
To be fair the polls showed that Hillary was going to win the popular vote. What it couldn't do is predict the actual numbers accurate enough to make accurate predictions.
RoYoMi
I like claims with a side of sauce please.
Ultratoxic
Terrible example as the polls pretty accurately reflected her loss of popularity as the email gate ground on. What they didn't spot were the incoming blue waves in each successive election because the polls can't see young people.
williamtowel
and Trump would win the last election. They have been wrong for near a decade now because no one sits down for poll anymore
BellsTheorem
We know to some degree who does and who doesn't answer the polls. How those polls shift over time and where, still provides valuable information for a political campaign.
pgdave
Maybe you're remembering a lot of the people *interpreting* the polls saying that hillary was going to win by a huge margin, but it wasn't the polls saying that. The polls had her up by a few percentage points in a few key states, but within the margin of error.
BellsTheorem
She also won the popular vote.