Probable Path of Cat. 4 Hurricane Matthew

NOAA

Wunderground

21 GMT 09/29/16 14.1N 67.8W 75 993 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 09/30/16 14.1N 68.8W 80 983 Category 1 Hurricane
06 GMT 09/30/16 14.1N 69.3W 100 979 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/30/16 14.0N 69.9W 100 979 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/30/16 13.7N 70.8W 115 968 Category 3 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/30/16 13.5N 71.6W 140 949 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/01/16 13.3N 72.3W 160 941 Category 5 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/01/16 13.3N 72.8W 155 942 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/01/16 13.4N 73.4W 145 947 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/01/16 13.5N 73.4W 150 940 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/02/16 13.8N 73.6W 150 940 Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/02/16 13.9N 74.1W 150 940 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/02/16 14.0N 74.6W 140 947 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/02/16 14.6N 74.8W 145 945 Category 4 Hurricane

Wunderground

...Air Force hurricane hunters find Matthew is still a powerful
category four hurricane...

Summary of 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...14.5n 75.0w
about 335 mi...540 km SSW of Port au Prince Haiti
about 265 mi...430 km SSE of Kingston Jamaica
maximum sustained winds...145 mph...230 km/h
present movement...NW or 315 degrees at 5 mph...7 km/h
minimum central pressure...945 mb...27.91 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory:

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, long cay, and Ragged Island
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and in the Bahamas should monitor
the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 PM EDT (0000 utc), the center of the eye of Hurricane Matthew
was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 14.5 north, longitude 75.0 west. Matthew is moving toward
the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest
is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the north on Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will approach Jamaica
and southwestern Haiti on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane into Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). NOAA data buoy 42058, in the central Caribbean Sea,
recently reported a wind gust to 62 mph (100 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure recently measured by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 945 mb (27.91 inches).

Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind: hurricane conditions are expected to reach Jamaica and Haiti
on Monday, and eastern Cuba Monday night. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to first reach Jamaica and Haiti tonight, and eastern
Cuba early Monday, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the warning area
by tonight.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas by
late Tuesday with tropical storm conditions possible by early
Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the
tropical storm watch area in the Dominican Republic by late
Monday.

Rainfall: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 15 to 25 inches in southern Haiti and the southwestern portion of
the Dominican Republic, with possible isolated amounts of 40 inches.
Across eastern Cuba and western Haiti, total rain accumulations of 8
to 12 inches are expected, with possible isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches. Across eastern Jamaica, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches
is expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible.
This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.

Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12
inches over the southeastern Bahamas, with isolated maximum amounts
of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
8 inches over the Turks and Caicos Islands.

Lower amounts are expected across the northeastern section of Haiti
and the Dominican Republic, with amounts ranging from 1 to 3 inches
with isolated amounts around 5 inches. Rain amounts of 1 to 2
inches are expected over western Jamaica. Additional rainfall of
1 to 2 inches is expected over northern Colombia through tonight.

Storm surge: the combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
northern coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

Surf: swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, eastern Cuba, and the Caribbean
coastline of Central America during the next few days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Wunderground

Wunderground

After temporarily losing some of its organization this morning,
Matthew has become a little more impressive in its appearance. The
eye, while not quite cleared out on visible imagery, has become more
distinct during the day and the overall cloud pattern has become a
bit more symmetric. Consistent with these changes, observations
from the Air Force hurricane hunters indicated that some
strengthening has taken place. The advisory intensity is set
to 125 kt based on a blend of flight-level winds, SFMR-observed
surface winds, and eyewall dropsonde data from the aircraft.

Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Matthew
should remain low or at most moderate at least until the cyclone
moves near the Bahamas, which would imply little decrease in
intensity. However, interactions with land should cause some
weakening during the next couple of days. Aside from that, some
fluctuations in strength could occur due to eyewall replacements.
The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model
consensus.

Earlier today, the hurricane meandered westward for several hours,
but recent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the motion is
northwestward, albeit slowly, at around 4 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is about the same as in the previous advisory package.
Matthew is expected to turn northward and move along the western
side of a mid-level high pressure area for the next several days.
Later in the forecast period, a ridge building slightly to the north
of the tropical cyclone could induce a turn to the left. In
general, the track models have not shifted closer to the coast with
the exception of the U.K. Met. Office global model, which is an
outlier. The official track forecast is along essentially the same
trajectory as the previous one, but is a little slower than before.
This is slightly west of the latest multi-model consensus.

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible possible
hurricane impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or
how, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States East
Coast.

Forecast positions and Max winds

Init 02/2100z 14.6n 74.8w 125 kt 145 mph
12h 03/0600z 15.4n 74.9w 125 kt 145 mph
24h 03/1800z 16.7n 74.9w 125 kt 145 mph
36h 04/0600z 18.3n 74.7w 115 kt 130 mph
48h 04/1800z 20.1n 74.5w 110 kt 125 mph...inland
72h 05/1800z 23.6n 75.1w 100 kt 115 mph
96h 06/1800z 26.8n 76.1w 95 kt 110 mph
120h 07/1800z 30.0n 76.5w 90 kt 105 mph

$$
forecaster Pasch