Probable Path of Cat. 4 Hurricane Matthew

NOAA

Right at their door.

Wunderground

Wunderground

Corrected watches and warnings summary and minimum pressure

...Hurricane hunters find Matthew is still a 140-mph hurricane...
...Life-threatening rain...wind...and storm surge expected in
parts of Haiti tonight...

Summary of 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...16.6n 74.6w
about 120 mi...190 km S of Tiburon Haiti
about 200 mi...325 km SW of Port au Prince Haiti
maximum sustained winds...140 mph...220 km/h
present movement...NNE or 15 degrees at 8 mph...13 km/h
minimum central pressure...934 mb...27.58 inches

Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory:

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguin, Granma,
and Las Tunas
* southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins,
Crooked Island, long cay, and Ragged Island
* central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San
Salvador, and Cat Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Camaguey
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry
Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the border with Haiti
* Jamaica

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Puerto Plata westward to the border with
Haiti

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of
Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your National meteorological service.

Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 PM EDT (0000 utc), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 16.6 north, longitude 74.6 west. Matthew is moving
toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn back toward
the north at a faster forward speed is expected later tonight
through Tuesday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast
on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
approach southwestern Haiti tonight, move near eastern Cuba late
Tuesday, and move near or over portions of the southeastern and
central Bahamas Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson hurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next couple of days, but Matthew is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km).

The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 934 mb (27.58 inches).

Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind: hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Haiti
tonight, eastern Cuba Tuesday, the southeastern Bahamas late
Tuesday, and the central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to continue spreading across Haiti this
evening, reach eastern Cuba tonight, the southeastern Bahamas early
Tuesday, and the central Bahamas Tuesday night, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of Jamaica and
along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic within the
warning area soon.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the northwestern Bahamas on
Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Wednesday.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch areas in
Cuba and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday night with tropical
storm conditions possible on Tuesday.

Rainfall: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:

Southern Haiti and southwestern Dominican Republic...15 to 25
inches, isolated 40 inches
eastern Cuba and northwestern Haiti...8 to 12 inches, isolated
20 inches
eastern Jamaica...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 to 20 inches
the Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches
Turks and Caicos Islands...2 to 5 inches, isolated 8 inches
northeastern Haiti and the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 inches,
isolated 5 inches
western Jamaica...1 to 2 inches

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely from this
rainfall in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern
Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

Storm surge: the combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
northern coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...2 to 4 feet
Gulf of gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
the Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

Surf: swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the coasts of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Colombia, eastern Cuba,
and the Caribbean coastline of Central America during the next few
days. Swells from Matthew will begin affecting portions of the
Bahamas on Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Wunderground

03 GMT 09/30/16 14.1N 68.8W 80 983 Category 1 Hurricane
06 GMT 09/30/16 14.1N 69.3W 100 979 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/30/16 14.0N 69.9W 100 979 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/30/16 13.7N 70.8W 115 968 Category 3 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/30/16 13.5N 71.6W 140 949 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/01/16 13.3N 72.3W 160 941 Category 5 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/01/16 13.3N 72.8W 155 942 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/01/16 13.4N 73.4W 145 947 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/01/16 13.5N 73.4W 150 940 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/02/16 13.8N 73.6W 150 940 Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/02/16 13.9N 74.1W 150 940 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/02/16 14.0N 74.6W 140 947 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/02/16 14.6N 74.8W 145 945 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/03/16 14.7N 75.0W 145 943 Category 4 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/03/16 15.2N 74.9W 135 943 Category 4 Hurricane
15 GMT 10/03/16 15.6N 75.0W 140 941 Category 4 Hurricane
21 GMT 10/03/16 16.3N 74.7W 140 940 Category 4 Hurricane

Wunderground

Matthew's structure has not changed much today. The most recent Air
Force hurricane hunter aircraft mission found peak SFMR winds of 124
kt on their last pass through the northeastern eyewall, and a peak
flight-level wind of 118 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity is held at 120 kt for this advisory. The central
pressure has been steady around 940 mb for much of the day.
Matthew's satellite presentation remains impressive, with a 15 N mi
wide eye surrounded by convective tops of -80c or colder and
excellent outflow, especially poleward. Little change in intensity
is expected during the next couple of days, with the exception of
some possible weakening due to land interaction with Haiti and
eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in intensity due
to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. While Matthew is
expected to be a little weaker once it moves into the Bahamas as the
shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat content decreases a
little, it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through the
next 5 days, as shown by the global models. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to or a little above the latest intensity
consensus through 4 days and is closest to the GFDL model at day 5.

Matthew is now moving a little to the east of due north, or 010/06.
The short term track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the
hurricane will move generally northward for the next 24 to 36 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The
new NHC track forecast during this time has been nudged eastward
toward the latest multi-model consensus aids, and continues to show
the core of the dangerous hurricane moving near or over the
southwestern peninsula of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern
Cuba on Tuesday.

At 48 hours and beyond, the GFS has trended sharply westward, and
now is in agreement with the UKMET and ECMWF in showing the western
extent of the Atlantic subtropical ridge nosing north of Matthew
across the Carolinas in 3-4 days. This results in Matthew taking a
more northwesterly track across the Bahamas, and closer to the
Florida Peninsula during this time. The UKMET is farthest west,
with a track over the East Coast of Florida and into South Carolina
in 4-5 days. The GFS, ECMWF, and the GFDL model are a little
farther east and remain close to but offshore of Florida. The GFDL
and GFS are close to southeastern North Carolina by day 5, while the
ECMWF is slower. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
significantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of
the guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend. While there
remains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long
range, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. Coast has
increased.

Key messages:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in
portions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the
Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services
and other government officials in those countries.

2. Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this
week. Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued
sometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of
Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this
weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too
soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on
the remainder of the U.S. East Coast. At a minimum, very dangerous
beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. East
Coast later this week and weekend.

Forecast positions and Max winds

Init 03/2100z 16.3n 74.7w 120 kt 140 mph
12h 04/0600z 17.4n 74.6w 120 kt 140 mph
24h 04/1800z 19.2n 74.4w 120 kt 140 mph
36h 05/0600z 21.0n 74.7w 115 kt 130 mph
48h 05/1800z 22.8n 75.5w 110 kt 125 mph
72h 06/1800z 26.0n 78.0w 105 kt 120 mph
96h 07/1800z 29.5n 79.0w 100 kt 115 mph
120h 08/1800z 33.0n 78.0w 90 kt 105 mph

$$
forecaster Brennan