HurricaneTracker
73
12
2
NOAA
Wunderground
...Powerful Matthew moving westward...
Summary of 800 am EDT...1200 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...13.4n 73.1w
about 365 mi...585 km S of Port au Prince Haiti
about 400 mi...645 km se of Kingston Jamaica
maximum sustained winds...155 mph...250 km/h
present movement...W or 270 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/h
minimum central pressure...947 mb...27.96 inches
Watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory:
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect:
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to riohacha
A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-au-Prince
Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and eastern Cuba should monitor
the progress of Matthew.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your National meteorological service.
Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 800 am EDT (1200 utc), the center of Hurricane Matthew was
located by an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft near
latitude 13.4 north, longitude 73.1 west. Matthew is moving toward
the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is
forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest
on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will
continue to move away from the Guajira Peninsula this morning, move
across the central Caribbean Sea today and Sunday, and approach
Jamaica Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Matthew is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
hurricane wind scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
this weekend, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
through Monday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft is 947 mb (27.96 inches).
Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind: tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in
portions of the warning area in Colombia for the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are possible on Jamaica on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Haiti by late
Sunday.
Rainfall: rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected over Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao through today.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher amounts are
expected along the coast of Colombia from the Venezuelan border to
riohacha. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher
amounts are expected along the coast of Venezuela from coro to the
Colombian border.
Rainfall totals of 10 to 15 inches with isolated maximum amounts of
25 inches are expected across Jamaica and southern and southwestern
Haiti. These rains may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mud slides.
Surf: swells generated by Matthew are expected to affect portions
of the coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Jamaica, Aruba, Bonaire,
Curacao, Venezuela, Colombia, and eastern Cuba during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
Next advisory
-------------
next complete advisory at 1100 am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brennan
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Marine Advisory
0900 UTC Sat Oct 01 2016
Changes in watches and warnings with this advisory...
None.
Summary of watches and warnings in effect...
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Jamaica
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Colombia/Venezuela border to riohacha
A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the southern border with the Dominican Republic to
Port-au-Prince
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds...
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...in this case in the
next 12 hours.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia and
elsewhere in Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Matthew.
Interests in eastern Cuba should also monitor the progress of
Matthew.
Hurricane center located near 13.3n 72.8w at 01/0900z
position accurate within 10 nm
Present movement toward the west or 270 degrees at 6 kt
Estimated minimum central pressure 942 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt.
64 kt....... 30ne 20se 20sw 40nw.
50 kt....... 80ne 30se 30sw 70nw.
34 kt.......180ne 60se 50sw 170nw.
12 ft seas..240ne 150se 270sw 330nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 13.3n 72.8w at 01/0900z
at 01/0600z center was located near 13.3n 72.5w
Forecast valid 01/1800z 13.3n 73.6w
Max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
64 kt... 30ne 20se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 90ne 40se 30sw 70nw.
34 kt...160ne 80se 50sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 02/0600z 13.8n 74.5w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 80ne 40se 30sw 70nw.
34 kt...150ne 90se 60sw 140nw.
Forecast valid 02/1800z 14.9n 75.1w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 40ne 30se 20sw 30nw.
50 kt... 80ne 50se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...150ne 100se 70sw 130nw.
Forecast valid 03/0600z 16.2n 75.7w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
50 kt... 80ne 50se 40sw 60nw.
34 kt...170ne 120se 70sw 140nw.
Forecast valid 04/0600z 19.5n 76.0w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
50 kt...100ne 70se 50sw 60nw.
34 kt...180ne 160se 100sw 140nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 150 nm
on day 4 and 200 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 15 kt each day
Outlook valid 05/0600z 23.0n 76.0w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
Outlook valid 06/0600z 26.0n 76.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 13.3n 72.8w
Next advisory at 01/1500z
$$
forecaster Beven
Wunderground
21 GMT 09/29/16 14.1N 67.8W 75 993 Category 1 Hurricane
03 GMT 09/30/16 14.1N 68.8W 80 983 Category 1 Hurricane
06 GMT 09/30/16 14.1N 69.3W 100 979 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 09/30/16 14.0N 69.9W 100 979 Category 2 Hurricane
15 GMT 09/30/16 13.7N 70.8W 115 968 Category 3 Hurricane
21 GMT 09/30/16 13.5N 71.6W 140 949 Category 4 Hurricane
03 GMT 10/01/16 13.3N 72.3W 160 941 Category 5 Hurricane
09 GMT 10/01/16 13.3N 72.8W 155 942 Category 4 Hurricane
Wait, it was Cat. 5 at one point? I mean, it went back to category 4 very quickly, but oh wow.
Wunderground
Matthew has changed little in organization since the past advisory,
with a small eye surrounded by a central dense overcast featuring
cloud tops colder than -80c. The eye has become a little less
distinct, suggesting at least that the hurricane is no longer
intensifying. In addition, the raw intensity estimates from the
CIMSS ADT technique are slightly lower than they were six hours
ago. Based on these trends, the initial intensity is reduced to
135 kt. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled
to reach Matthew near 1200 UTC.
The initial motion is now 270/6. Matthew remains south of a low-
to mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The dynamical models
forecast this ridge to weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to
upper-level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico. This
evolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward after 24 hours
and northward by 48-72 hours. The guidance generally agrees with
this scenario. However, there is a spread between the GFS forecast
of landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF forecast
landfall in southwestern Haiti. The guidance becomes more divergent
after 72 hours. The GFS shows a turn toward the north-northwest,
which brings the center closer to the northwestern Bahamas and
Florida. This model is near the western edge of the guidance
envelope. The ECMWF is near the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope and shows the center east of the Bahamas by 120 hours.
Adding to the uncertainty is the eastward shift of the Canadian
model since its previous run. Given the uncertainty, the 96 and 120
hour forecast points are changed only slightly from the previous
forecast. This part of the forecast track lies to the east of the
GFS, but to the west of the Canadian, ECMWF, and navgem models. It
is also a little to the west of the various consensus models.
Matthew should experience significant shear for the next 24 hours or
so, as water vapor imagery shows westerly flow blowing into the
hurricane underneath the impressive outflow pattern. This should
cause some weakening. After that time, the dynamical models suggest
the shear should decrease, which should allow Matthew to at least
maintain its intensity. The new intensity forecast shows a
slightly weaker intensity than the previous advisory through 72
hours based mainly on current trends. Subsequently, the hurricane
is likely to interact with the land masses of Jamaica, Cuba, and
Hispaniola, leading to some weakening and disruption of the
structure. Between this and uncertainty about how much shear
Matthew will encounter north of Cuba, the new forecast shows only
modest strengthening after Matthew reaches the Atlantic north of
Cuba. There is also the possibility of fluctuations in intensity
caused by eyewall replacement cycles at any time during the forecast
period.
It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.
Forecast positions and Max winds
Init 01/0900z 13.3n 72.8w 135 kt 155 mph
12h 01/1800z 13.3n 73.6w 130 kt 150 mph
24h 02/0600z 13.8n 74.5w 120 kt 140 mph
36h 02/1800z 14.9n 75.1w 110 kt 125 mph
48h 03/0600z 16.2n 75.7w 110 kt 125 mph
72h 04/0600z 19.5n 76.0w 110 kt 125 mph
96h 05/0600z 23.0n 76.0w 90 kt 105 mph
120h 06/0600z 26.0n 76.5w 95 kt 110 mph
$$
forecaster Beven