Apr 24, 2019 12:18 AM
cw5000
117679
3660
61
DieselSJ
I see business decisions made like this all the time.
khora
I saw this on imgur and though it was already on imgur.
TwoSpeedTony
v
FlyingTigerRose
Wow. This is great. Thank you!
thebridgejumper
That would lead to a 100% loss.
trumpypumpyinyourrumpy
And? What was the outcome?
ActuallyACateArmyOfficialDoNotWhistleAboutIt
The Allied forces won and the US dropped a bomb on Japan. The effects are clearly seen in modern Japanese pornography.
whitter86
Same with why they had a spike in head injuries in wwi because they added helmets.
Mavgurian
Yep. Hits to the head were suddenly not insta-death anymore, so more headwounds in the hospital. They almost banned helmets over it alegedly
jzatarski
I think we also see this in the 'they don't make them like they used to' saying. The old ones we still have around were the well made ones.
the old poorly made stuff got thrown out long ago, all we're left with was the good stuff.
painstream
Stats and numbers need context to be useful.
Ithardlyseemstomatternow
Like stats of drugs caught coming thru ports of entry, duh, what about the rest that dont go thru ports?
SilverNicktail
Anti-vaxers: this is why autism rates have skyrocketed - because we can fucking diagnose it now.
nanyatenyaa
Ive seen this stated multiple times, but it assumes one group was correct and another was not without using any definitive proof.
Darktrufffle
This is also a frusteration in the gun violence/gun control debate when this type of data is used.
MadeSuchAHaterThey2XDVandReportMe
When I saw the thumbnail I thought it was places that a plane had been shot and still survived to land.
stehenallein
That's just the way we've always done things.
gabrielolnunes
It implies a very naive behavior for them to do in a war. I’m sure they recovered crashed planes as well.
ThisUsernamelsNotAvailable
Hey VSauce! Michael here
RockMeLikeASugarcane
For a LinkedIn post there is a serious lack of hashtags and buzzwords like 'disruption', 'growth hacking' and 'innovation' tbh
williamvanauger
same thing happened with the British army and helmets. Helmets were issued, head injures went up, so people wanted to take them away.
TheMightyMoto
Interesting
Kukiniloa
Why in the world would anyone think that bullets magically find those spots on an airplane?
Durango
And why anyone would go "Hm ya know,protecting the damn engines that keep the plane flying isn't that important, this Mr. Wald sounds crazy"
Dragula13
This is my boss
I am indeed and you’re the best person we have here! Also I love that we talk about Imgur
True and you’re the best person we have and the only on on imgur with me!
YES!! So no one will know you said I'm the best and they wont get jelly.
writeyourusernamehere
Moar reading for the interested https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
Very interesting. Thank you very much.
astrangehop
If you guys like this sort of thing the https://youarenotsosmart.com/podcast/ has amazing episodes about biases, fallacies etc.
OrkenMork
this is why sample sets are misleading....
WellThatsJustMorePineapplePizzaForMe
But rumors, true or false, are often revealing...
FiftyShadesOfCauliflower
Nevermind anecdotal evidence. Many people have a relative who used to [insert unhealthy habit] a lot & nevertheless lived to a ripe old age.
PapaDiGiorno
No, rather survivorship bias
TheGhostofLouReed
* can be misleading
No, I meant what I said. Statistics depends completely on who is interpreting them!
Draenic
Especially if presented certain ways
ThailandExpress
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
scJazz
I've seen this all over the place but I always enjoy it.
I dont because all it states is some one had a different opinion but never shows meaningful evidence either were a correcr assessment.
Its two groups saying "im right because..." but no actual evidence, just conjecture.
It makes no statements on if the changes to armor changed survivability or not or if the planes were tested after a change.
So its just contextless bullshit. If you cant give me actual context, suck a dick instead of telling this story. Better use of a mouth.
RenegadeSci
Same with Conceal and Carry lists being "more law abiding than the population". They never count C&C holders who later commit crimes.
onetinylife
I don't know if that's valid. At least my thinking is, I will follow every rule I have to because continuing to carry is important to me.
Also when you say C&C I only think of those who are legally allowed to. Otherwise they are carrying an illegally concealed weapon.
falcon62
Yeah I’m gonna need a source on this one...
MegatronPewPew
Someone gave that poor plane measles....
KentuckyFriedChildren
It didn’t wear it’s Jimmy Hat when coming to port in the orient
chasingthevarmintaroundtheglobe
Damn anti vaxers
LeapingAChasmInTwoJumps
Yeah, but corporate says otherwise.
lochnessmonsterr
Typical big navy
HagglePuff
hilk
The one downvote this got obviously belongs to someone in a corporate office.
SirBrownCow
Everything is always ass backwards in the military. If it makes sense, they’re probably going to go with the exact opposite.
Example: For those who have worn them, when the military switched from Interceptor Flaks to the MTV’s... Worst Flak. EVER.
SeventhDurandal
I was soooo glad we got plate carriers instead of that horseshit.
nervesatme
Fuck those things! With their bull crap lamb skin in a 140 weather. Only allowed to be worn for 50 min. BS
Oh Lawd the horrible memories. Welts out the ass, dehydrating 2x faster, no range of motion what-so-ever. But hey, it’s got Molle out da ass
GameKeeper3001
Famous example of survivorship bias. This is the reason hedge fund studies show great returns. Funds that fail aren’t included.
soupiswhatitsoundslikewhenyoueatsoup
Also explains why Geico customers are 97% satisfied with Geico. If they weren't satisfied, they'd choose another company.
Excellent point. No one seems to notice this.
Ryebread91
Eili5 this one for me?
AspAspAsp
Studies focused on the success of [hedge funds] are overly positive because unsuccessful [hedge funds] stop existing, and aren't counted.
TheAmazinAustralasian
Preach
jekath
Kinda like "no one was vaccinated when I was a kid and we're all ok".
PlanckEraWasMyBestEra
Yes, I hate when older people say "kids these days are too soft. We all went around without helmets or seatbelts and we were fine!"
knifeskills
Sounds like the FDAs secret files on failed medical/surgical equipment. Stats are even hidden from surgeons.
BESTtaylorINAUSTRALIA
Sounds like the Right wing party of Australia, with a target of 30,000jobs to create, & 1 years result was only 4,000. "JOB PATH WORKS"
cearn
Psychic scams are similar. Give one prediction to 500 people and the opposite to 500 others. Do this 5 times. 100% accuracy for ~30 people.
HighlandPotatoe
Better example, seat belts.
Patrem
How do seat belt studies show survivorship bias? They definitely have to take mortalities into account.
Horsenippleking
Injuries in car accidents went up but fatalities went down.
ultradongle
I think there was a rise in neck, back, etc. injuries that someone flying through the windshield and scraping across road would not report.
Rowengauntt
Cause hedge funds and airplane are perfectly analogus.
No but the missing statistics are applicable to both
ZionPhil
Thank you. Data"s gonna data.
graehall
You're analogous.
HelpfulTimeTraveler
?1
AliBarber
Jesus dude are you this much of a stick in the mud all the time or is today special?
I got a pretty terrible haircut today so I do feel less than perky, but I made a pretty fair point. That engineer saved lives with good /1
Analysis and this guy says, "he's wrong because failing hedge fund manager mislead shareholders by not reporting failed funds"...
Oh shit, I'm an idiot! He's saying the engineer was right and the idiots who wanted to armor the planes wrong are like hedge fund manager..
eldarriath
I think his mommy says he is...
I feel like a foolish fool now.
sens22s
Or that time they introduced helmets in the army and suddenly the number of head wounds went up
Lankinator
https://youtu.be/1IQE0uZUMys
SnackMasterRanger
Also like people who say seatbelts cause injuries
senseihugo
*helemets
BecauseCanadian
Can you please explain this one? Because before head wounds weren’t reported since those who had be been shot in the head would be dead?
yogoo0
If you get shot in the head you usually die. With a helmets it's just going to hurt... a lot
DaveBobert36
It's not a wound if you're dead
Exactly. A lot of people that would have died from their head injurie instead just got a head wound and could report back to base.
Isorikk
Yes, you got it exactly. Instead of dying, they would only be injured.
nemo3590
Correct. Nobody was marking where the dead were hit, so anyone hit in the head was just "dead," whereas after helmets it was "head wound."
Eldibs
Basically. More people survived head wounds, so they were reported as head wounds and not "killed in action."
Bingo.
aeolous16
Yes, pretty much that. People weren't getting shot in the head more, they were just living to report it as a wound instead of a death.
JayEnfield
Helmets aren't for being shot in the head, they're for shrapnel and debris being thrown around by explosions. Helmet = concussion, not KIA.
BoneThatTrombone
But also getting your brain rocked outta your skull with no helmet too
Yeah, same reason there are more amputees now as well. Armored bits on a soldier keep em alive but legs and arms arent armores
JohnnySmithy
I'm trying to think of a good joke with armores. Can anyone help? I'm on my last legore here.... Nope that was horrible.
Danishlmgurian
It's okay, man. Try again. Make a last stand.
MyNameIsJesusAndIStealHubcapsFromCars
when shrap-nel hits your eye and your legs, they go bye, that's armor-e
clevermotherfucker
The type of aircraft used in the pic is the same as what my grandfather was a radioman on. PV1 Ventura. Great plane.
TeamNutmeg
Hats off for patrol squadrons! Do you know which squadron he flew with?
VPB 200
Hey, a Kaneohe Bay squadron! Very cool. If you have any pics, I'd love to see them - I volunteer at the Barbers Point museum.
He has some crew pics. His stories also include time spent in midway & guam iirc
The naval air station museum? I am a otr trucker roaming the lands, working on getting digital copies of the photos for you
OtterlyMagnificent
It's important to note that despite literally jumping feet first into a war-footing, we still built shit that could handle a beating. 1/
one great example, the Marauder B-26 Flak Bait. https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/how-many-missions-did-flak-bait-fly 2/2
tlamstrike
Take a beating all right:
lancecriminal86
Grumman Ironworks
Yes, that's one example. Have you read the one about the Liberator that did a belly landing short 3/4 of the wing surface and the entire1/
tail behind the ball? Flying entirely on the remaining bits of flaps on the scraps of wing, bomb doors open for the braking power on crash/2
KingBanana8008
I swear there’s a story of either a Liberator or Lancaster that was basically cut in two during a collision but still managed to fly home
WisconsinCentral2714
A B-17 named All American is the plane that springs to mind for me.
Oh yes that’s the one. Didn’t realise it was a B-17 thanks
DieselSJ
I see business decisions made like this all the time.
khora
I saw this on imgur and though it was already on imgur.
TwoSpeedTony
FlyingTigerRose
Wow. This is great. Thank you!
thebridgejumper
That would lead to a 100% loss.
trumpypumpyinyourrumpy
And? What was the outcome?
ActuallyACateArmyOfficialDoNotWhistleAboutIt
The Allied forces won and the US dropped a bomb on Japan. The effects are clearly seen in modern Japanese pornography.
whitter86
Same with why they had a spike in head injuries in wwi because they added helmets.
Mavgurian
Yep. Hits to the head were suddenly not insta-death anymore, so more headwounds in the hospital. They almost banned helmets over it alegedly
jzatarski
I think we also see this in the 'they don't make them like they used to' saying. The old ones we still have around were the well made ones.
jzatarski
the old poorly made stuff got thrown out long ago, all we're left with was the good stuff.
painstream
Stats and numbers need context to be useful.
Ithardlyseemstomatternow
Like stats of drugs caught coming thru ports of entry, duh, what about the rest that dont go thru ports?
SilverNicktail
Anti-vaxers: this is why autism rates have skyrocketed - because we can fucking diagnose it now.
nanyatenyaa
Ive seen this stated multiple times, but it assumes one group was correct and another was not without using any definitive proof.
Darktrufffle
This is also a frusteration in the gun violence/gun control debate when this type of data is used.
MadeSuchAHaterThey2XDVandReportMe
When I saw the thumbnail I thought it was places that a plane had been shot and still survived to land.
stehenallein
That's just the way we've always done things.
gabrielolnunes
It implies a very naive behavior for them to do in a war. I’m sure they recovered crashed planes as well.
ThisUsernamelsNotAvailable
Hey VSauce! Michael here
RockMeLikeASugarcane
For a LinkedIn post there is a serious lack of hashtags and buzzwords like 'disruption', 'growth hacking' and 'innovation' tbh
williamvanauger
same thing happened with the British army and helmets. Helmets were issued, head injures went up, so people wanted to take them away.
TheMightyMoto
Interesting
Kukiniloa
Why in the world would anyone think that bullets magically find those spots on an airplane?
Durango
And why anyone would go "Hm ya know,protecting the damn engines that keep the plane flying isn't that important, this Mr. Wald sounds crazy"
Dragula13
This is my boss
cw5000
I am indeed and you’re the best person we have here! Also I love that we talk about Imgur
cw5000
True and you’re the best person we have and the only on on imgur with me!
Dragula13
YES!! So no one will know you said I'm the best and they wont get jelly.
writeyourusernamehere
Moar reading for the interested https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
FlyingTigerRose
Very interesting. Thank you very much.
astrangehop
If you guys like this sort of thing the https://youarenotsosmart.com/podcast/ has amazing episodes about biases, fallacies etc.
OrkenMork
this is why sample sets are misleading....
WellThatsJustMorePineapplePizzaForMe
But rumors, true or false, are often revealing...
FiftyShadesOfCauliflower
Nevermind anecdotal evidence. Many people have a relative who used to [insert unhealthy habit] a lot & nevertheless lived to a ripe old age.
PapaDiGiorno
No, rather survivorship bias
TheGhostofLouReed
* can be misleading
OrkenMork
No, I meant what I said. Statistics depends completely on who is interpreting them!
Draenic
Especially if presented certain ways
ThailandExpress
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
scJazz
I've seen this all over the place but I always enjoy it.
nanyatenyaa
I dont because all it states is some one had a different opinion but never shows meaningful evidence either were a correcr assessment.
nanyatenyaa
Its two groups saying "im right because..." but no actual evidence, just conjecture.
nanyatenyaa
It makes no statements on if the changes to armor changed survivability or not or if the planes were tested after a change.
nanyatenyaa
So its just contextless bullshit. If you cant give me actual context, suck a dick instead of telling this story. Better use of a mouth.
RenegadeSci
Same with Conceal and Carry lists being "more law abiding than the population". They never count C&C holders who later commit crimes.
onetinylife
I don't know if that's valid. At least my thinking is, I will follow every rule I have to because continuing to carry is important to me.
onetinylife
Also when you say C&C I only think of those who are legally allowed to. Otherwise they are carrying an illegally concealed weapon.
falcon62
Yeah I’m gonna need a source on this one...
MegatronPewPew
Someone gave that poor plane measles....
KentuckyFriedChildren
It didn’t wear it’s Jimmy Hat when coming to port in the orient
chasingthevarmintaroundtheglobe
Damn anti vaxers
LeapingAChasmInTwoJumps
Yeah, but corporate says otherwise.
lochnessmonsterr
Typical big navy
HagglePuff
hilk
The one downvote this got obviously belongs to someone in a corporate office.
SirBrownCow
Everything is always ass backwards in the military. If it makes sense, they’re probably going to go with the exact opposite.
SirBrownCow
Example: For those who have worn them, when the military switched from Interceptor Flaks to the MTV’s... Worst Flak. EVER.
SeventhDurandal
I was soooo glad we got plate carriers instead of that horseshit.
nervesatme
Fuck those things! With their bull crap lamb skin in a 140 weather. Only allowed to be worn for 50 min. BS
SirBrownCow
Oh Lawd the horrible memories. Welts out the ass, dehydrating 2x faster, no range of motion what-so-ever. But hey, it’s got Molle out da ass
GameKeeper3001
Famous example of survivorship bias. This is the reason hedge fund studies show great returns. Funds that fail aren’t included.
soupiswhatitsoundslikewhenyoueatsoup
Also explains why Geico customers are 97% satisfied with Geico. If they weren't satisfied, they'd choose another company.
falcon62
Excellent point. No one seems to notice this.
Ryebread91
Eili5 this one for me?
AspAspAsp
Studies focused on the success of [hedge funds] are overly positive because unsuccessful [hedge funds] stop existing, and aren't counted.
TheAmazinAustralasian
Preach
jekath
Kinda like "no one was vaccinated when I was a kid and we're all ok".
PlanckEraWasMyBestEra
Yes, I hate when older people say "kids these days are too soft. We all went around without helmets or seatbelts and we were fine!"
knifeskills
Sounds like the FDAs secret files on failed medical/surgical equipment. Stats are even hidden from surgeons.
BESTtaylorINAUSTRALIA
Sounds like the Right wing party of Australia, with a target of 30,000jobs to create, & 1 years result was only 4,000. "JOB PATH WORKS"
cearn
Psychic scams are similar. Give one prediction to 500 people and the opposite to 500 others. Do this 5 times. 100% accuracy for ~30 people.
HighlandPotatoe
Better example, seat belts.
Patrem
How do seat belt studies show survivorship bias? They definitely have to take mortalities into account.
Horsenippleking
Injuries in car accidents went up but fatalities went down.
ultradongle
I think there was a rise in neck, back, etc. injuries that someone flying through the windshield and scraping across road would not report.
Rowengauntt
Cause hedge funds and airplane are perfectly analogus.
knifeskills
No but the missing statistics are applicable to both
ZionPhil
Thank you. Data"s gonna data.
graehall
You're analogous.
HelpfulTimeTraveler
graehall
AliBarber
Jesus dude are you this much of a stick in the mud all the time or is today special?
Rowengauntt
I got a pretty terrible haircut today so I do feel less than perky, but I made a pretty fair point. That engineer saved lives with good /1
Rowengauntt
Analysis and this guy says, "he's wrong because failing hedge fund manager mislead shareholders by not reporting failed funds"...
Rowengauntt
Oh shit, I'm an idiot! He's saying the engineer was right and the idiots who wanted to armor the planes wrong are like hedge fund manager..
eldarriath
I think his mommy says he is...
Rowengauntt
Oh shit, I'm an idiot! He's saying the engineer was right and the idiots who wanted to armor the planes wrong are like hedge fund manager..
Rowengauntt
I feel like a foolish fool now.
sens22s
Or that time they introduced helmets in the army and suddenly the number of head wounds went up
Lankinator
https://youtu.be/1IQE0uZUMys
SnackMasterRanger
Also like people who say seatbelts cause injuries
senseihugo
*helemets
BecauseCanadian
Can you please explain this one? Because before head wounds weren’t reported since those who had be been shot in the head would be dead?
yogoo0
If you get shot in the head you usually die. With a helmets it's just going to hurt... a lot
DaveBobert36
It's not a wound if you're dead
sens22s
Exactly. A lot of people that would have died from their head injurie instead just got a head wound and could report back to base.
Isorikk
Yes, you got it exactly. Instead of dying, they would only be injured.
nemo3590
Correct. Nobody was marking where the dead were hit, so anyone hit in the head was just "dead," whereas after helmets it was "head wound."
Eldibs
Basically. More people survived head wounds, so they were reported as head wounds and not "killed in action."
ultradongle
Bingo.
Lankinator
https://youtu.be/1IQE0uZUMys
aeolous16
Yes, pretty much that. People weren't getting shot in the head more, they were just living to report it as a wound instead of a death.
JayEnfield
Helmets aren't for being shot in the head, they're for shrapnel and debris being thrown around by explosions. Helmet = concussion, not KIA.
BoneThatTrombone
But also getting your brain rocked outta your skull with no helmet too
Horsenippleking
Yeah, same reason there are more amputees now as well. Armored bits on a soldier keep em alive but legs and arms arent armores
JohnnySmithy
I'm trying to think of a good joke with armores. Can anyone help? I'm on my last legore here.... Nope that was horrible.
Danishlmgurian
It's okay, man. Try again. Make a last stand.
MyNameIsJesusAndIStealHubcapsFromCars
when shrap-nel hits your eye and your legs, they go bye, that's armor-e
clevermotherfucker
The type of aircraft used in the pic is the same as what my grandfather was a radioman on. PV1 Ventura. Great plane.
TeamNutmeg
Hats off for patrol squadrons! Do you know which squadron he flew with?
clevermotherfucker
VPB 200
TeamNutmeg
Hey, a Kaneohe Bay squadron! Very cool. If you have any pics, I'd love to see them - I volunteer at the Barbers Point museum.
clevermotherfucker
He has some crew pics. His stories also include time spent in midway & guam iirc
clevermotherfucker
The naval air station museum? I am a otr trucker roaming the lands, working on getting digital copies of the photos for you
OtterlyMagnificent
It's important to note that despite literally jumping feet first into a war-footing, we still built shit that could handle a beating. 1/
OtterlyMagnificent
one great example, the Marauder B-26 Flak Bait. https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/how-many-missions-did-flak-bait-fly 2/2
tlamstrike
Take a beating all right:
lancecriminal86
Grumman Ironworks
OtterlyMagnificent
Yes, that's one example. Have you read the one about the Liberator that did a belly landing short 3/4 of the wing surface and the entire1/
OtterlyMagnificent
tail behind the ball? Flying entirely on the remaining bits of flaps on the scraps of wing, bomb doors open for the braking power on crash/2
KingBanana8008
I swear there’s a story of either a Liberator or Lancaster that was basically cut in two during a collision but still managed to fly home
WisconsinCentral2714
A B-17 named All American is the plane that springs to mind for me.
KingBanana8008
Oh yes that’s the one. Didn’t realise it was a B-17 thanks