Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) Update: 3/2/2020

Worldwide View: Dots are large/small to indicate number of cases, and placed in the geographic center of the affected region. Current Global Map/Charts created and maintained by Johns Hopkins University
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
*Plague.Inc symbols have been continually added for a bit of levity.
**********************ATTENTION! This post is out of date.
Most current update: https://imgur.com/gallery/y8DWAtQ

Asia/Middle East Area close Up

Europe Close Up

Alternate map.

Chart from Worldmeters

*Note. This fatality rate is based on current recovered/deaths. The average worldwide is about 2%.
Updates since the last post.
Currently Infected: (-1,208)
Deaths: (+68)
Recovered: (+2,990)

Daily Cases outside China: Chart from WorldoMeters
*Chart is for end of the day on the 1st- does not update until after this post goes out for some time.

Distribution of Cases outside China: Chart from WorldoMeters

Total Cases outside China: Chart from WorldoMeters
Logarithmic Scale: https://i.imgur.com/K3EJKmV.png

A breakdown of United States cases. Sorry, they don't have a Europe option available =(

Age and risk of the virus. This is to put things in perspective for most at-risk groups. Idea was forwarded by a user and I agree it's important information to maintain perspective and reduce panic. This is the info we have from the virus in China.
From WorldoMeters.

List of total countries with ACTIVE cases- to offset the map. Data from Worldometers

Current United States Uh-Oh rating: 5.5/10

International: 6-6.5
^Added for worldwide clarity.
Keeping at 5.5 as things develop in the United States.

All these lovely images provided by @Sequ892
***************************************
Post is out a bit early; have an evening thing, but didn't want to delay it. Numbers do not take into account the S. Korea update.

Bunker Communications Hub Discord Server: Feel free to join our growing community! New Area-specific channels added by @TheRealWhaleLord (The Administrator) more coming soon!

*Contact details added. Feel free to sign up to be a source for information in your local area and connect with others, as well as talk with users in 'hot zones' (Areas affected by the virus.)
https://discord.gg/3fyuSeA

Twitter: @BunkerJohn2

- "The new coronavirus appears to now be spreading much more rapidly outside China than within, and airports in hard-hit countries were ramping up screening of travelers....

World Health Organization (WHO) chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said almost eight times as many cases had been reported outside China as inside in the previous 24 hours, adding that the risk of coronavirus spreading was now very high at a global level. " -Reuters

- "WHO chief on coronavirus: "Our message to all countries is: This is not a one-way street. We can push this virus back. Your actions now will determine the course of the outbreak in your country. There is no choice but act now."" -BNO News

- "U.S. Vice President Mike Pence said that within 12 hours, airports across South Korea and Italy will screen all travelers for coronavirus. Pence, who has been put in charge of the U.S. response to the outbreak, also said U.S. travel restrictions may expand.

The head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said U.S. industry expects to have the capacity to perform 1 million coronavirus tests by the end of the week. " -Reuters

- "The Seoul government asked prosecutors to launch a murder investigation into leaders of the church. Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon said that if founder Lee Man-hee and other heads of the church had cooperated, fatalities could have been prevented.

Lee knelt and apologized to the country, saying that one church member had infected many others and calling the epidemic a “great calamity”. " -Reuters

- "But Wuhan itself, at the center of the epidemic, shut the first of 16 specially built hospitals that were hurriedly put up to treat coronavirus cases, the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV said.

There was also a steep fall in new cases in Hubei, the province around Wuhan, but China remained on alert for people returning home with the virus from other countries.

The virus broke out in Wuhan late last year and has since infected more than 86,500 people, mostly in China.

Only eight cases were reported in China beyond Hubei on Sunday, the WHO said.

China’s U.N. Ambassador Zhang Jun at a news conference said: “We definitely believe that with the coming of spring we’re not far from the coming of the victory of the final defeat of COVID-19.” " -Reuters

- "In Britain, which has 40 confirmed cases, Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged people to be prepared for a further spread. " -Reuters

- "Andorra, Armenia, Czech Republic, Dominican Republic, Iceland and Indonesia...

Latvia, Saudi Arabia, Senegal and Morocco reported cases for the first time, bringing the total to more than 60 countries with the illness known as COVID-19. confirmed their first cases. " -Reuters

- "A senior U.S. official said he was concerned about a likely jump in the number of cases in the United States, which has had more than 90, with six deaths. More testing will almost surely lead to more confirmed cases.

“When you have a number of cases that you’ve identified and they’ve been in the community for a while, you’re going to wind up seeing a lot more cases than you would have predicted,” Dr Anthony Fauci, head of the infectious diseases unit at the U.S. National Institutes of Health, told CNN. " -Reuters

- "Researchers who studied the first two Washington deaths had said the virus may have been spreading there for weeks, and suggested that up to 1,500 people may have been infected." -BBC

- "Australian health officials are meeting today to consider additional measures to stop the spread of coronavirus, including a possible ban on large gatherings and asking people to work from home - ABC, citing sources" -BNO News

- "King County, WA health officer: "The risk for all of us of becoming infected will be increasing, and although most of the cases will be mild or moderate, the infection can cause serious illness and there's a potential for many people to become ill at the same time" - BNO News

- "Moscow reports first case of coronavirus" -BNO News

- "European CDC update on coronavirus in the EU and the UK. Risk of "widespread sustained transmission" is now "moderate to high."" -BNO News

- "EU Crisis Management Commissioner on coronavirus: "While we should not give in to panic, the situation is likely to still get worse so we need to be prepared and time is of essence"" -BNO News

- "The world is in "uncharted territory" on the coronavirus outbreak, the World Health Organization (WHO) has said.Its chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said the virus was "unique" but could be contained with the right measures....

Dr Tedros insisted: "We can push this virus back". He also said stigma was more dangerous than the disease itself." -BBC

- "This was a "unique virus with unique features" and the WHO would have expected wide contagion by now, but containment measures had appeared to work, the doctor said.Of the 62 countries reporting cases of infection, 38 of them had 10 or fewer, he added.

"Around eight countries have not reported new cases for two weeks and have been able to contain the outbreak," he said. China had also shown containment was possible even in countries with a large number of cases.The WHO would continue to monitor whether the outbreak should be called a global pandemic, Dr Tedros said." -BBC

- "The WHO says the virus appears to particularly affect those over 60, and people already ill.

In the first large analysis of more than 44,000 cases from China, the death rate was 10 times higher in the very elderly compared to the middle-aged.

But most patients have only mild symptoms and the death rate appears to be between 2% and 5%, the WHO said." -BBC

(If there is something that you've found that you think should be here, please let me know! =)

- No freaking out. Take a deep breath. Did you do that? Ok, good, now you can keep reading.

- The virus is named SARS-CoV-2, the diseases it causes COVID-19
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/11/802352351/new-coronavirus-gets-an-official-name-from-the-world-health-organization

- CDC Telebriefing held on 2/28/2020
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0228-COVID-19-update.html

- Symptoms are similar to that of the common cold, but can lead to more serious developments such as pneumonia and organ failure.

- The greatest at-risk population is the elderly and those with existing, underlying illnesses.

 "“We do not understand the disease pyramid properly”, adds Whitworth. “There are people who are asymptomatic, people who are infected with mild disease, people infected with severe disease, and then the people who die. It looks like 15–20% of confirmed cases are severely ill, and something like 3% have died. But we have no idea how this fits in with the total number of cases”. "- The Lancet

- Like other respiratory infections, the coronavirus spreads between people in droplets from coughs and sneezes....it is still too early to know what its death rate will be. " - Reuters

- "...experts say much is still unknown, including its mortality rate and transmission routes." -Reuters

- Due to the nature of the virus, it is present in both the respiratory tract and the intestinal tract (and therefore is present in feces of the infected.)

- The Virus appears to be able to infect individuals before symptoms show in some cases. This is a important development. This means the incubation period (average of 10 days, 1-14) is ALSO the time you can be infecting others, vs other pathogens where you have to be showing symptoms to be infectious, such as SARS, to which the virus is 70% similar to, genetically.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/t0214-covid-19-update.html.html

- The Virus has been declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization

- "Human-to-human transmission of 2019-nCoV has been confirmed, with an R0 of 1·4–2·5. Many more cases are expected. On Jan 30, 2020, WHO declared a public health emergency of international concern. “The main reason for this declaration is not because of what is happening in China, but because of what is happening in other countries”, commented WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom." - TheLancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(20)30056-4/fulltext

- There are confirmed cases of human-to-human transmission outside China.

- A study has been released detailing incubation rate/how long it lives on the surface of objects. (2-10 days incubation*Update below*, and lives on surfaces up to 9 days)
https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext

*There is reports of the incubation period now extending up to 27 days.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/new-coronavirus-cases-fall-in-china-but-who-concerned-by-global-spread-idUSKCN20G05W

- The Virus has been successfully grown in a lab outside China, aiding research efforts.

- The CFR (mortality rate) has been evaluated, and ranges from 18% in Wuhan, to 1.2-5.6% in other nations. It varies widely due to available resources/care/etc. This is a current estimate, and is cautious that it may continue to change.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf

- A large study has been released evaluating who is at the most risk. Thus far, it appears to be elderly/hospital workers.http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51

I'd advise everyone to get their Prescriptions filled, as the virus has now caused its first drug manufacturing shortage. If possible, see if a 3 month plan is available (or a higher dose to allow halving, giving an extra month.)
https://www.businessinsider.com/fda-announces-first-coronavirus-drug-shortage-2020-2

And, as a user brought up, don't forget your furry (or scaly) friends. Get some extra pet food/accessories.

*********To those who are just starting their preparations, I suggest these simple beginnings*********
Water, Food, First Aid, Flashlight/batteries, Radio.

-Water: Best would be dedicated containers, but in a pinch, the 1-gallon jugs work just fine (just don't last beyond a year or two) And they're cheap! Aim for about 1-2 gal/person/day.
-Food: Canned food is great! It's cheap, lasts forever, but a bit bulky. Just buy a bit extra than you usually do (if you eat canned foods,) otherwise just put together canned 'meals' and go from there!
-First Aid Kit: If you don't have any training, that's fine- a typical wal-mart one will do fine. Maybe snag some extra medications that you may need (antibiotic ointment, allergy meds, etc.)
-Batteries/Flashlight- LED is a great option and cheap nowadays!
-Radio- any radio off amazon/that can receive emergency channels will work. Goal is to be able to get information if the power is out.*****************************************************************************************

- There is increasing spread outside of China. CDC has recommended Americans prepare for a potentially 'severe disruption of life' within the states.

- Community transmission has been confirmed in the United States, along with its first death.

-There are multiple indicators that the numbers reported by China are not reliable.

- There was a constant 2.1% (+ or - about .1-.2%) reported fatality rate, without much variation (EVEN with this jump in cases/deaths), and that is another indicator of data manipulation, as well as the cases following a quadratic curve. (and reported cases/deaths dropping sharply after an announcement by the Chinese President)
- China appears to be more concerned with economic status than addressing the outbreak.
- Journalists covering the outbreak continue to be missing/otherwise unable to post updates or contact family.****************************************************************************************
FEMA recommends 1 week of supplies for a general crisis- this would be a good time to make sure that's in place at a bare minimum for any crisis. A pandemic requires significantly more supplies than a week (months.)

The discovered contagious incubation period, 9 day surface survival time, and confirmed human-to-human transmission is a disturbing find, and this continues further watching with caution. A high R0 (R-Naught), how many people are infected per one sick, is also rather high.

Resources: https://www.ready.gov/kit

https://www.readyrating.org/Resource-Center/All-Resources/shelter-in-place-supplies-checklist
https://www.thereadystore.com/diy/1608/9-essentials-sheltering-place/

I'm more than willing to offer recommendations on how to get started if it seems too daunting, as 3 days to 1 week is the bare minimum for any general disaster/crisis to have on hand, let alone a global pandemic (to which this has not progressed to just yet, however)

Food, water, first aid kit, battery-powered radio, flashlight is the backbone of an emergency kit/stash.

I'll keep these updates coming daily, stay safe everyone, and thank you for reading,
-Bunker J.

Any and all support is greatly appreciated as these daily posts/answering questions is all done in my free time amid a full time job/graduate work. And...well, bills. =P

Patreon supporters will get an email notification with a condensed update that links to here. (And access to any fun things I add with tiers- laminated uh-oh scales, knick-knacks, etc. I am open to suggestions, by the way!
https://www.patreon.com/bunkerjohn

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https://ko-fi.com/bunkerjohn
Shifting to Ko-Fi vs gofundme, as someone asked for an alternative, and this one is more sustainable I think. While I don't drink coffee...just replace that with an MRE! XD
I cannot thank those who have supported me enough in this, I really do appreciate it!

Maps and Charts:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
and
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
-
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus/coronavirus-spreading-fast-outside-china-airports-to-increase-screenings-idUSKBN20P1LO?il=0
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-latest-factbox/latest-on-the-spread-of-coronavirus-around-the-world-idUSKBN20P1PT
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51712437