BaradaNikto
91488
2717
136
Oct 18, 2020 8:45 AM
BaradaNikto
91488
2717
136
SeasonedCitizen
Biden campaign is warning us Trump could still win, don't be complacent.
IG1Fields
The media did claim quite a wide margin for Hillary, the actual numbers had her at 3% over Trump. Still, get your ass out there and vote!
Mcguireonfire78
Do not get complacent. Do not believe the polls
didja20
It's a little different this time.
magitek
This is not a poll from Election Day 2016, which was ultimately around 71% v. 29%. I’m guessing this screencap was before Comey testified
BaradaNikto
Yes, it's from 4 years ago as indicated in the title and indeed before Comey
Evanrudeplz
Posts like these remind how little about politics and electoral analysis the average person comprehends.
bringbackfritoburrito
I ain't calling my family. That's gonna have the opposite effect to what you're thinking..
IsThisABurnerAccount
1:7 aren't super bad odds. It's like flipping a coin heads 3 times in a row, not common but not unheard of.
bsmithwins
It’s Russian roulette odds...
PandaDander
The polls were actually closer than people give them credit for, they weren't suggesting that 87 percent of voters would vote for Hillary,
PandaDander
They were stating that she would had 87 percent chance of winning. If you think 87 % is a sure thing, you should go play Xcom.
Vanhellen
We need the senate too or nothing is going to get done.
AtsaMattaForMe
james25000
Nothing up my sleeve......that show had everything. Fractured Fairy Tales? Moose and Sqirrel
james25000
I know
AtsaMattaForMe
again?
stilloldbull
Run Joe, Run! Because all our lives depend on it!
KaleighBug
If you think you don't need to vote, my FIL, MIL, SIL, and BIL all voted Trump yesterday. My one vote can't counteract 4
K1NGMERCENARY
As a candian, the electoral college sounds super illegal. Why would your country's votes not count against corporations??
Micro2112
Micro2112
Hard to account for the massive amount of people who just don't vote at all
Copperbrat
Well because
ViolentlyOfferingBeerToSheep
sounds like i should name my kid "Did not vote"
chamilitary
don't forget all the votes jill stein got.
Astro777
She got 1% of the vote. She was much closer to 5th (0.54%) than 3rd (3.28%).
chamilitary
Trump won wisconsin by like 19k votes. jill stein got 31K votes. same deal with ohio.
DeathAnGravity
Trump/Clinton victory potential were polled at 42/45 with a +/-3% error margin in 2016. Trump's win was less likely, but within error.
PieAndPunch
Hillary also never lead by this much this close to the end of the race. Biden is so far ahead he has real potential to take TX and GA
ravnicrasol
Also to keep in mind, one BIG aspect of the Trump campaign was to target lists of people online to dissuade them from voting.
DeathAnGravity
Yep. That's a wildcard factor pollsters haven't figured out how to account for.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4eqjQpREFc
MonteCristo1985
Take nothing for granted, but the swing between polls and reality in 2016 was due to the undecides splitting for Trump. Far fewer this time.
B3N15
It's also worth noting that a 12.6% chance is still a chance. Trump basically managed to draw a straight and play it. He got lucky in...
B3N15
...2016 and managed to eek out a win.
haveyouheardabouttheseinternetmemes
Which is still entirely possible this year. VOTE.
B3N15
Without a doubt.
Ismellofhockey
Clinton was never above 50% as Biden has been consistently. Also, the DNC hacks made Bernie supporters stay home, and Comey rehashed the...
Ismellofhockey
email canard a few days before the election.
anhh67
Don't ignore the fact that Trump supporters often did not state they were Trump voters. I would love to see the undecideds....
MonteCristo1985
That's kind of what I mean. Clintons numbers were right. But a bunch of Trump supporters polled as undecided or 3rd party. Not this time.
anhh67
....also Johnson did not get the number of votes that he polled at. That is the "wasted vote" excuse.
noonehasthisoneyet
Trump won middle America. That’s where our problems are. People who still have a 1930s mindset
kaymon
Well we have a 1930s economy, so...
noonehasthisoneyet
We’re just depressed. The depression hasn’t sunk in yet
cookingachicken
Or ...people who don’t think like you, who might actually have valid ideas of their own.
pintgudge1975
I voted yesterday! Please vote as soon as you can. Like your life depends on it! Convo W/this guy who said "It wastes time-" I voted anyhow.
pintgudge1975
He said "it doesn't determine the presidential election" ? I voted anyhow. "Useless!" voted anyhow. "Meaningless!" Voted anyway.
pintgudge1975
I said voting makes me feel good. "So do drugs, doesn't mean they're good for you" Voted anyway. Please Vote! Let's not do like last time!
evlozid
Why is every post like this assuming everyone is gonna vote for Biden if they go to the polls
cookingachicken
Because this site is swarming with assholes who can’t think independently and need the dopamine hit from restating the same opinions.
evilspyre
Because census data shows more people are liberal, so thats why there is voter suppression / gerrymandering etc.
pancakesplz
because republican representatives represent less people with more seats than their democrat counterparts. When ppl vote, reps lose
OnceDerped
Because the majority of people in the US don't align their views with those of Trump and for good reason.
Seanspeed
The ONLY reason the Republican party isn't some small minority party in this country is cuz young people dont vote.
abacab87
statistically more are voting for democrats. It's only when they stay home that Republicans have a better chance.
craycray606
What if I told you that Hillary won but Putin somehow gamed the ballot system and pushed it for Trump
planktoncupcakes
Biden needs 270 EC votes to win - focus on the electoral college because u know trump is doing that
surfer008
Vote vote vote
mookian
She did win popular vote but your electoral college is one fucked up idea
RiskIt4ABiscuit
FuturamaIsAlwaysRelevant
Some weird stuff that I have never seen bring posted this morning
DevouredYou
Amazing
DuckSeason
I NEED TO KNOW WHERE TO GET THIS SONG
UltimatePotatoPunch
.
xirbitzy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7WP6BTTaXwY&ab_channel=MemoryHole
xirbitzy
Credits in the description, think the song is a rework of a hotline miami song
DrPhillipMahmoufWifarts
Also: they underestimated the work of 25 years of irrational hatred toward her..
mardukkur
And the vagina.
ViolentlyOfferingBeerToSheep
underestimated or outright ignored?
khora
She had the lead until Comey did Comey things.
Seanspeed
Underestimated, mostly. They had more faith in Americans than we deserved. This community alone was full of Hillary bashing.
anhh67
Hillary had/has some fairly obnoxious character issues. Those aren't made up. Those are real.
Puvaradivi
With the circus trump put on during the 2016 campaign, this is the most flimsy argument against Hillary one could make.
Seanspeed
Citing character issues as why she lost to Trump is fucking asinine.
anhh67
That is why she lost. I don't care if you don't like it. It isn't stupid or foolish. It is a fact. Had she not had them she would have won.
cookingachicken
Word
pancakesplz
the death squads, etc, were though.
BalloonPie
Someone help the USA voting system make sense please. If one candidate receives 2m voltes, and the other gets 1m votes, how does he win?
GogglesGreek
The Electoral College gives delegates, because rural, slave-owning colonies wouldn't join the US unless they got unfair voting power.
RisingPhoenix92
All votes are equal. But some votes are more equal than others
jtalbain333
Google Gerrymandering. The Electoral College is effectively that, only on a larger scale.
stabthecrab
If the election were decided by popular vote, California, Texas. Florida, and New York would basically pick the winner. Those are very
stabthecrab
Different people then say, Colorado or Minnesota who would basically have no voice in the matter.
jtalbain333
I think that excuse is a theory at best. How many millions of Republicans in CA & NY stay home because they feel their vote doesn't matter?
KWJester49
So instead we vote by landmass instead of population
jayar1st
The President is not elected by the people. The pres is elected by the States. Each state gets a certain # of votes based loosely on pop.
jayar1st
The system rounds out population outliers so the election isn't decided by just the most dense states (NY, CA, TX)
jayar1st
The electoral vote and the popular vote usually match, but not always if one candidate does especially well in rural areas.
Counterfit
Even though those states don't vote 100% for anyone, just like any other state
Church14
Except that in turn provides outsized voting power to low population states. Forcing the majority to be stuck with policies of the minority.
jayar1st
Rarely, but yes, sometimes. That's why or system is built on a complicated network of checks and balances.
jayar1st
The EC is one of those checks. It forces the presidential candidate to work to please the whole country instead of just the coasts.
gaidinbdj
The US is a federation. At the federal level, we have Congress which is comprised of the House of Representatives (which represents the...
gaidinbdj
...people of a specific district) and the Senate (who represent a specific state). The President is chosen by the states and weighted...
gaidinbdj
...according to how much representation they have in Congress. If it were a direct vote, it would cut member states out of the decision....
gaidinbdj
...which the states would, obviously, never agree to when they transferred some powers to the federal government.
UnrealDreamer
Each state gets a number of points based on population. Those votes go to the majority winner of that state. 1/
haveyouheardabouttheseinternetmemes
It's not directly correlated with population, though. Every state gets 2 votes to start before they start counting population.
UnrealDreamer
If one candidate gets 51% in a state he gets the votes. So enough 51% will win even if he gets 0% in the rest of the country. 2/
UnrealDreamer
So it’s theoretically possible to win the presidency with a little over 25% of the popular votes.
BalloonPie
Absolutely bonkers
Hekatombe
... with Maine and Nebraska being the exception ? https://www.fairvote.org/maine_nebraska
Hekatombe
With interesting results https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/19/politics/biden-trump-nebraska-maine-new-hampshire-nevada/index.html
BalloonPie
To me that sounds like the states are divided, not united, surely it should be measured on population as a country
UnrealDreamer
Well, that’s the thing. The US was built more like the EU than like a country. A coalition of independent states.
BalloonPie
That was a good 200 years ago though, maybe its just me, but I thought it would/should have been modernised by now. but thanks for the info
UnrealDreamer
The system was also built so that changes are hard to pass unless every agrees. 51% states don’t want things to cuz they would lost power
GloveFullaVaseline
You're not wrong. It's antiquated and fucked up.
DontAskMeAboutMyUsernameOkay
When people post these like "omg blue was winning" they always forget about one major component here: The electoral college.
Yuktio
"More people voted for Clinton than Trump? Well yes but no."
Kbantar
More people did, just not more people whose vote actually mattered.
MyCommentsUsuallyHaveTypos
Which should be done away with altogether completely
Telruin
It's not so much a vote for the president, as it is a vote for who gets to vote for the president.
ImHereToGetDownvotes
While that was true in 2016 a lot of reputable news stations have made it clear that they're not focusing on national polls this time around
VodkaReindeer
The people making these predictions didn't forget.
skellyten
Why isn't the faces of the electoral collage known like senators? So we can know they don't hold bias?
ruolandsliet
Also the delay from administering a poll and the infamous Weiner Laptop October surprise.
CrypticalEnvelopement
This map seems to reflect the electoral college, it's about margin of error. That race was much closer at this point than Biden-Trump
DontAskMeAboutMyUsernameOkay
Note that I'm talking about the people posting it not the creator of the map nor the content. These kinds of posts usually talk about the >>
DontAskMeAboutMyUsernameOkay
>> popular vote and how important it is to go vote.
CrypticalEnvelopement
Yeah pointing to national polling just seems disingenuous and dangerous, especially considering 2016
alchemist12345
And another major component: "margin of error"
khora
Note that margin of error is also an estimate that can be wrong.
VodkaReindeer
You don't need a margin of error have to a chance of winning if you got a double digit chance of winning...
alchemist12345
You absolutely do. You arrive at that "winning%" by assuming to win certain states where margin of error is also in play. If the outcome of
alchemist12345
winning 30 states is within the margin of error (meaning the result of candidate 1 and 2 have an overlapping interval), then that 90% chance
alchemist12345
is pretty shaky.
Felman
That's not how margin of error works. MoEs are for specific polls, not chances of winning.
VodkaReindeer
Yep. If the poll gives you a 30% chance to win, you have a chance even if its margin of error is 0%. So you agree with me?
anhh67
This is the biggest thing. People are ignorant of the issue here. Hillary, in battle ground states were within the margin of error and lost
khora
You could argue that the entire block of “undecided voters” is a margin of error, above the polling error. Pollsters count undecided as 1/
khora
if they will break 50/50. Now if the FBI director releases something just before the election that will not be the case. The good news 2/
khora
now that we are so deep into the comments tree that no one will read it is that the number of undecided is much lower than 2016, so it’s 3/
Arbitrarynamehere
Nate Silver talked about that in a recent FiveThirtyEight podcast. Would recommend giving it a watch
alchemist12345
I dont think thats true. As limited as my stat education background is, all you can do is to project the result of the polled sample to
QuiteBitterBeing
Sounds like your system is broken.
anhh67
Our system is fine. Everyone has things in their government that idiosyncratic. It isn't like we have made up new rules these have been...
anhh67
....in place for 244 years. They are there for a reason.
khora
Not necessarily a good reason though
anhh67
So...if we had a world government would everyone be OK with China and India having a proportional amount of power or do you think other...
DontAskMeAboutMyUsernameOkay
In plenty of states the electoral college doesn't have to vote the same way as the majority of the state, kinda mucks shit up.
JSLauder
It doesn’t actually muck shit up. Do yourself a favor and google “faithless elector.” It’s never affected a Presidential race.
OldSchool93
MAine and Nebraska are the only states that don’t award all of their electoral votes to the state’s popular vote winner.
DontAskMeAboutMyUsernameOkay
Right but that'd be why I specified "have to".
ImGoingToGoFallAsleepOnABench
That actually scares me - even if Biden gets, say, 70% of the vote, electors can legally just decide "fuck it" and pick Trump anyway. (1/2)
DaddyPutin
The Senate IS elected by popular vote though. If Trump manages to steal the presidency but loses the senate, it will not fo well for him.
ImGoingToGoFallAsleepOnABench
While penalties exist for doing so, it's up to state governments to impose them. (2/2)
MoreBeer
Democrat electors are not going to vote Trump if the state goes D. Faithless electors in the DNC are more likely to vote Sanders, Gabbard...
MoreBeer
Or some other Democrat. Just like Republican electors aren't going to vote Biden if the state goes R. They'd vote for someone like Ron Paul.
Kbantar
I remember when some said they would vote for Hillary no matter how many citizens actually voted for Bernie.
OldSchool93
No. A candidate selects their own electors. Perhaps you’re thinking of superdelegates, which has nothing to do with electoral college.
Kbantar
Yikes. I hope I'm not confused, but probably am.
ImGoingToGoFallAsleepOnABench
A candidate...selects their OWN electors? Perhaps I'm misinformed, but that just sounds fucking scary.
SmugandFurry
People learned from 2016. Voters are turning out in record numbers already.
WhatsYourCovidStory
Not enough. Half the country doesnt vote and trump locked down his base of hardcore supporters.
SmugandFurry
Trump’s hardcore support is dwindling. But it doesn’t matter; all decent people have to do is vote.
Seanspeed
I still see lots of people going on smear campaigns against Biden(that aren't right wingers) and spreading 'both sides' bullshit.
SmugandFurry
People smearing Biden are right wingers, they're just hiding behind "BSAB" to dodge the stigma of being a Trump supporter.
jtalbain333
Since Biden already has those votes in the bag, his campaign can more efficiently focus GOTV efforts to further boost his turnout.
pancakesplz
we better hope the people that didn't vote have a fire under their ass & fast or we're fucked seven way to sunday, and none of them good.
SmugandFurry
https://www.npr.org/2020/10/18/924182086/early-voting-analysis-historic-turnout-drives-long-lines-administrative-errors
pancakesplz
Nothing for granted, we better vote like trump is ahead 20 points.
SmugandFurry
Amen. The key will be remembering next election. If everyone who could vote did so, the GOP would be reduced to a punchline.
pancakesplz
which while great, won't mean crap if we don't get people foaming at the mouth to push policies to fix this clusterfuck of a country
IAmTheRealTurinTurambar
Sorry, I'll believe it when I see it. 4 years of this POS has made me cynical,
PieAndPunch
Personally I know about a dozen first time voters/ people that sat out 16 if that's at all reassuring
KillerTofu615
My county has already received more mail in ballots and early voters than the entirety of voters in 2016
Algebraicrhombus
Would you say your county is typically red or blue?
KillerTofu615
typically solid red.
Algebraicrhombus
I had a feeling early voting was mostly a blue "area" phenomenon. This is promising news.
SmugandFurry
I live in a Red county in a Blue state, and even here, Dems are outpacing the GOP in early voting.
plaidballoon
Remember Clinton won by millions of votes. But lost the electoral college
fosiacat
she will be able to console biden
secretoaster
Biden is doing well on swing states. Just need people to vote on those states
ExplosiveBloodyDiarrheaPants
Have you driven through the "swing states"? Trump signs outnumber Biden signs over 10 to 1. Flyover states changed 2016, and they will again
secretoaster
I'm in a swing state and a gun owner who is voting for Biden. Yes, signs don't mean anything.
RalinStorm
She didn't. When they started to recount votes Trump was GAINING in the popular votes, they stopped after a few days.
dwilson0725
Why would that mean she didnt if they didnt finish? The only official count says she won.
GoYotes
Technically the official count said she lost
dwilson0725
Popular vote. Not electoral.
IssacCox
Yeah it's been almost 100 years since a republican president won a non encumbant election by popular vote
noonehasthisoneyet
It’s the only way repubs can win. The majority of Americans want progress. The electoral college needs to be taken away for a real democracy
perchance2dream
Clinton won what by millions of votes? She 'won' the popular vote? Wasn't she aware thats not how to win an election?
iamwang
Stay corrupt, America!
thejohe
Hence why voting is a giant waste of time, electoral has the power to bought our by Trump again...
LiteralFish
I think voting sends a message and helps the push to abolish the EC. If no one votes they can claim the EC isn't the problem, apathy is.
ToneLock
third world democracy. crazy rules, how come ?
lichenit
Electoral college needs to go back to school, wtf
Hurch
Yeah, that's happened 5 times...so far
MyCommentsUsuallyHaveTypos
Because Trump probably bought the electoral college
qixx23
Well that IS the way it works.
nevergoingtogiveyouupnevergoingtoletyoudown
He won by a wiiiiiide margin in the electoral.
mynameisbenhello
Why it basically pointless for me to vote in California for the president atleast. Props and local still mean something I think.
andrewedf10
same with me living in TN, i vote for my dog; dogmeat.
prideonlyhurtsneverhelps
Honest question here.So with the awesome voting structure that is in place, how in the world can we trust that our vote counts for anything?
jtalbain333
The GOP only tries to snatch elections at the margins. They don't want to upend the system, so they balk if they lack plausible deniability.
jtalbain333
Make it too big to rig. They are willing to steal elections, but only as long as they can plausibly claim they're not doing that.
SmurfEggs
The electoral college votes the president in not ours
MadMupp
Its so theres a better representation, so there's not just essentially wealthy coastal cities decisions for the country
captapathy
But Biden has Trump on his side this time. No one is better at making Trump look stupid, mean and foolish as Trump.
spiceass9000
Do you not remember his 2016 campaign? It literally doesn’t matter for some reason
TheFeralDog
I mean he did a great job of it in 2016 too and still won
QuiteBitterBeing
Please vote so we wont have to liberate you from the dictator.
FlyingButtPliers
Don't be so sure. Remember when fox made a list of everything bad about Sanders plan and it was everything most loved about it? Same list.
EdwardEH
Doesnt matter one bit. Everyone needs to vote. Over 100 million didnt vote in 2016.
Kyrorayne
I admit that I didn't because I hated both candidates. This election, I voted early against Trump because fuck that fascist wannabe dictator
EdwardEH
Youre not alone. We need to take a stand against Trumpism.
GuyWithDog
Sadly that's entirely in the eye of the beholder and some have come different conclusions. Go vote.
GuyWithDog
* come to
pastramionrye
DrJesusMD
She didn't "win" by any means because elections are only measured by the electoral college. That's the way representstive democracy works.
SnarfyMcSnarferson
The EC does the opposite of representing people
runefjord2
uhm, no it isn't that's how the US system works which is a very very specific system
ElTee86
This is one of those times where being technically correct doesn’t add anything to the conversation.
qixx23
Its not "technically". Its the ONLY way to win. No reason to even show a popular vote, since its meaningless.
ElTee86
Yes, but the comment is clearly referring to her winning the popular vote and contrasting that to the EC loss.
MechKelly
That's the way a broken system works. The people spoke and were ignored. An EC means that some people have less valuable votes than others.
TrixNStix
An ECmeans the vast majorityspeak abd have no voice
qixx23
Thats because the people choose your rep. Individual voices are not part of that system, for a reason.
armagetz
Right. Because the system is designed to inhibit centralized power. On the national scale, common needs should be considered (1)
armagetz
(2)on a broad scale. A high density of voters in a relatively small geographic area shouldn’t play a role in national politics.
armagetz
What’s broken are these new laws some states passed to IGNORE THE VOTES OF THE CITIZENS ENTIRELY if voters elsewhere go a different(1)
LiteralFish
The system is designed to keep free states from having a majority. It's rooted in racism.
armagetz
The system predates the concept of a “free state.” First abolistionist movements didnt even get started until around a decade later, much(1)
noodlewood
we in germany have also a representative democracy, but no such thing as electoral college
AaronPaulSturtevant
and the u.s. played a large part in how our country and our political bodies are structured.
DrJesusMD
In the US we are citizens of both the country itself and our own state. When we vote for pres., we vote for who our state wants to be pres.
AaronPaulSturtevant
yeah, and it's a pretty flawed system
AMercer
You know there is a big push to abolish the electoral college. 2016 is one of the reasons. She won. The people spoke and were ignored.
CouchCarrot
This would be very, very, very hard.
shelworth
Maybe you want to be ruled by Los Angeles and New York, I don't.
TheRealGritty
Well I mean, that's where the people are. Land doesn't vote, people do. There is no reason someone from Wyoming's vote is 3x someone from LA
HeyitsKev
“Love it or leave it”
dafrey
So explain to me why my vote is worth less than someone living in the middle of nowhere in the mid west
Counterfit
Los Angeles and New York 1) aren't monoliths and 2) don't even come close to being >50% of the electorate
shelworth
they control their States, which in turn controls the number of electors given to the candidate that wins that State.
lysani
I've noticed that people only push to abolish it when a Republican wins. If a Democrat wins, then they always say it's working as intended.
Maverickaura
because its only fucking republicans that lose the popular vote but win by electoral college.
MechKelly
Name the last time a Democrat won the popular vote but lost the election. Go ahead. We'll wait.
serj730
It my lifetime, it has happened twice. In 2000, and in 2016.
jtalbain333
Can you name me a single Democrat that won the electoral college but lost the popular vote?
Counterfit
Maybe it's because the current firm of the Electoral College only benefits the GOP? They've won the popular vote once in the last 20 years
Counterfit
But have held the presidency for 12 of those years.
Kbantar
Since that's literally never happened, you're full of shit.