The Cobra Effect

Mar 22, 2026 4:51 PM

unwaver

Views

19858

Likes

692

Dislikes

6

- Jonny Thomson

"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."
- Goodhart's Law

That's the Goodhart's Law. Described by Goodhart when Thatcher tried to KPI the doctors by the operation outcome, in which case doctors didn't operate on patients that were high risk. It's not just some snakes, it can have real life implications. Imagine not being able to get a doctor to operate on you because if you died their score would go down.

4 days ago | Likes 6 Dislikes 0

In the shipyard industry we have a metric called the DART rate to track safety. Guess what we started optimizing for. Hint: Not safety.

3 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

Op is using the definition of Goodharts law, then labelling it as the cobra effect.

Conclusion isn't that you don't suspend measuring of things like hospitals and schools, it's that you change your measurement strategy to look more at desirable outcomes.

2 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

I know this has nothing to do with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, but I can't help but think there's some poetry in how there's a general similarity here.

4 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

Humans instinctively turn rules into methods to avoid accountability.

3 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

Remember when the Internet was going to be used for the free exchange of information to enhance the human condition, instead of endless click- and rage- bait to drive engagement?

4 days ago | Likes 2 Dislikes 1

Attach a number to anything and the gamers will game.

3 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

The specific story didn't happen exactly like that. The bounty program was a failure (deaths from cobras remained steady before, during, and after), but when they suspected people were cultivating cobra, they just lowered the bounty so raising cobras wasn't worthwhile. Anyone raising the cobra would have just brought them in for the reduced bounty, not released them.

There have been other examples of perverse incentives that /did/ go that way, though, like a rat bounty program in Hanoi.

4 days ago | Likes 4 Dislikes 0

Many of those things now (hard to say about British colonial rule) are that way due to intentional tampering, rather than blind bureaucracy. When we change the definition of a term like "unemployed" or "poverty" etc and it reduces the visibility of a problem, there is always a conservative pushing for it to happen.

4 days ago | Likes 72 Dislikes 2

I swear this describes my work place almost perfectly. We have so much focus on hitting a target number just to hit it, with no regard for the actual purpose of reaching that level.

3 days ago | Likes 2 Dislikes 0

This is the workplace that burnt me out 20 years ago. I was an activities and wellbeing coordinator at a care home (movie club, bar nights, walks outside one on one with patients, etc.) Then all employees had to start document everything they did down into the smallest detail to "document effectivity". On a shared computer. Immediately after each action. Can't start next task before. It was such a long wait time that I went from 10 walks + bingo in one day to ONE SINGLE WALK.

3 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

Fascinating philosophy that hits psychologically, economics, and government policy.

4 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

When Fast Food places ask you to pull up and they have someone bring your food out, this is because it doesn't slow down their line times.
The intent was to have faster lines and save money, but now they employ an extra person just to run food out to people.

4 days ago | Likes 4 Dislikes 0

When you colonize a different country, don't put bounty on snakes? I dislike the "wisdom" gained through colonialism. Did they have a problem with snakes? I bet the colonizers did, but what in sayin is these stories are like colonialism propaganda. Would there have been a problem if England didn't go about it in THEIR way and respected the people of the land and labor they so desperately wanted.

3 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

It can have an even more sinister effect. Many of the Americans war crimes in Viet Nam can be traced to the idea of measuring martial success by body count. It made "we had to destroy the village to save it" a positive thing in jr officer evaluations. Dead villagers counted the same as dead enemy soldiers.

3 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

aka: "Tax the rat farms."

4 days ago | Likes 23 Dislikes 0

GNU Terry Pratchett

4 days ago | Likes 9 Dislikes 0

This is why AI is so dangerous. A poorly defined scoring method for a missile system, such as "casualty count" could lead to hitting cruise ships instead of battleships.

3 days ago | Likes 4 Dislikes 0

It will inevitably happen in any capitalistic society because some morons will try to "optimize" what they can't comprehend. More on that, any system that gets optimized becomes more fragile in the process. In a world that will inevitably become more and more fluctuant, we need less optimization and more robustness

3 days ago | Likes 2 Dislikes 0

Measures being targets isn't bad. It isn't bad to target lower homelessness rates, for instance. The problem is when you change the metrics to achieve the targets.

4 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

ok, all of that checks out except for the 'waiting' bit.. that's not attempting to fix or measure something, that's straight up reclassification to ignore the issue

businesses do this regularly.. if they've driven their name brand into the ground, they'll change their name to something that doesn't have the same stink to it

3 days ago | Likes 2 Dislikes 0

Local transit company started cancelling trains outright. Because a cancelled train didn't count as delayed so their delay stats (which gave penalties/bonuses) improved even though the disruption to travelers was worsened.

4 days ago | Likes 81 Dislikes 0

I see it all the time with LTL trucking companies. They routinely cancel pickups with unspecified reason that they are not going to make on time because then it doesn't count t toward a missed pickup.

4 days ago | Likes 18 Dislikes 0

If you're a business in the US i recommend icat for LTL.

3 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

https://xkcd.com/2899/

4 days ago | Likes 186 Dislikes 1

There's always an XKCD. :p

3 days ago | Likes 26 Dislikes 0

That story just taught me that humans really, really, REALLY suck and ruin everything. Which I already knew, so at least it wasn’t a shock.

4 days ago | Likes 7 Dislikes 0

Not all and not all of the time. There are several people who have been fairly good at doing some ok stuff

3 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 3

I bet you can associate anything that is linked to free money/subsidies/tax benefits to hastily developed processes specifically to maximize those benefits.

3 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

A local ocean lifeguard force likes to brag that they have never lost a rescue. Of course, if the situation is deemed beyond their ability to have influenced, those situations are classified as recoveries.

4 days ago | Likes 4 Dislikes 2

measuring ratios on different basis is very common and depends on what you want to judge - can you blame a lifeguard for not saving a swimmer that was mauled by a shark?

4 days ago | Likes 2 Dislikes 0

Go re-read the OP. I'm offering this as an example of the Cobra effect. The idea that there's a distinction worth making between hopeless situations where you're just dragging a corpse out of the water and situations where rescues are possible is fine, but when you turn and say, "This distinction exists, we're tracking it in our metrics, but we're also the judges, and guess what? We're batting 1.000, YAY!" count me skeptical.

4 days ago | Likes 1 Dislikes 0

"Please pull in to the 6th drive-thru parking spot so we can brag about how short we keep our line - your order will be ready in 40 minutes."

3 days ago | Likes 2 Dislikes 0

"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."

Yeah, school grades are a very poignant example of this.

4 days ago | Likes 12 Dislikes 0

The school parts of The Wire come to mind.

3 days ago | Likes 2 Dislikes 0